Willapa
Indicators
for a
Sustainable
Community
BETA NOTE: This is a large file, it has the ability to bog down your system, I would recommend letting the entire file load before you begin to browse it, you'll be much happier.

Many thanks to The Willapa Alliance WISC Committee for their hours of work and guidance on this report:

David Campiche, The Shelburne Inn; Ron Craig, The Willapa Alliance (Board); Dan'l Markham, The Willapa Alliance; Marko Muellner, Ecotrust; Kim Patten, Ph.D, Washington State University; Peter Schoonmaker, Ecotrust;Karen Snyder, Anna Lena's Products; Bettina von Hagen, Ecotrust; Lee Weigardt, Jolly Roger Seafood Company; Edward C. Wolf, Ecotrust.

Text: Peter Schoonmaker, Bettina von Hagen
Editing: Erin L. Kellogg, Edward C. Wolf
Technical Analysis/Research Assistance Marko Z. Muellner
Design: Elizabeth Coleman and Marko Z. Muellner
Production: Joan Kaczmarek, Patricia Wilson

Foreword
Executive Summary
Introduction
Environment

Economy

Community
Turning Research Into Action
Appendix: More Indicators
Contacts

"The mission of the Willapa Alliance is to enhance the diversity, productivity, and health of Willapa's unique environment, to promote sustainable economic development, and to expand the choices available to the people who live here."

My experiences as a county commissioner, pastor, local journalist, and a fourth-generation Pacific County resident have made me keenly aware that for generations, outside influences have significantly shaped the lives of folks in the Willapa region. Those influences--government, industry, and environmental groups among them--do not always take the time to understand, or even to consult, communities like ours.

The salmon crisis, the advent of the electronic information highway, and reductions in natural-resource jobs provide abundant evidence that we cannot stop change. Our challenge is to learn how to adapt to and harness such influences and hitch them to our own knowledge, energy and desires. The Willapa Alliance was founded on the belief that locally based science, economic research, and education can assist the people of Pacific County to promote positive change. The founding board members sensed a need for an independent organization of primarily local people representing a range of views and interests to assist our community to chart its own destiny. In the age of information, information is power. The Alliance believes this information document can make an important contribution to our community's empowerment.

The people who live around Willapa Bay share a conviction: our home should remain beautiful, healthy, and productive from an environmental, economic, and social point of view. This is sustainability. At a 1993 meeting of the Association of Evangelical Relief and Development Organizations, Dr. D. Merrill Ewart of Cornell University explained that sustainable development should empower people to implement effective solutions to their own challenges and problems. He qualified this by saying that external agents of change are useful if they assist local communities to accomplish goals set locally.

I believe that Willapa Indicators for a Sustainable Community can assist you, as it has me, to sharpen and broaden your sense of the place we call home and to understand more fully the forces that are changing our home. From this exercise in learning we hope to know more about ourselves, our community, and the ecosystem upon which our livelihoods depend. Increased knowledge can facilitate dialogue and debate, fostering the wisdom our community needs to set and achieve goals that will assure a sustainable future.

As a companion to Willapa Indicators, The Willapa Alliance has published A Directory of Organizations and Services in Pacific County, Including Key Government Officials. TheDirectory lists 488 private organizations and government agencies whose work addresses the environmental, economic, and community issues identified in Willapa Indicators.

The Willapa Alliance offers this indicators report and the Directory as complementary tools for citizens and the many organizations doing good work in the community. We encourage you to use these documents, to share them with your families, neighbors, and colleagues, to discuss what this information means to you and our community, and to let us know what you think.


Dan'l Markham
Executive Director
The Willapa Alliance
South Bend, Washington
August 1995

This report, the result of nearly three years of research by numerous individuals, is an attempt by the Willapa Alliance to take stock of the environmental, economic, and social conditions in the Willapa watershed, which coincides closely with the boundaries of Pacific County. We have gathered data on dozens of indicators from nearly eighty government, private and non-governmental agencies, not just on present conditions but on past trends as well. With this information we hope to understand where we have been and where we are so that we might, as a community, influence the direction in which we are going.

The eleven primary indicator categories in this report highlight some important concerns and challenges, which we summarize below. We conclude with an overview of what the Alliance is doing to address some of these concerns.

Key themes that emerge from a review of indicators presented in this report include the following:

1. Our timberlands and fisheries have undergone fundamental changes:

Timber harvests generally increased in the Willapa Hills until the early 1970s. Since then, market forces and the exhaustion of Willapa's old-growth timber have contributed to a general decline in harvests to a stable level well below the historical peak. (Figure 4.2)

Managed hatcheries now produce the abundance of salmon that Willapa's upland streams once sustained for free. Commercial landings of chinook and coho salmon, propagated by state hatcheries in the Willapa watershed, have increased since 1935. Landings of chum salmon, which depend on unassisted natural production, have declined. (Figure 3.2)

2. Pacific County has more local businesses than ever before, but still too few jobs for county residents:

The number of seasonal and year-round businesses in Pacific County has increased by nearly 20 percent since the late 1980's. (Appendix, Figure 5)

Pacific County's unemployment rate is more that 4 points higher than the Washington state rate. (Figure 5.1) Though unemployment in the county has historically exceeded the state average, the gap has widened in recent years.

3. Our growing and "graying" population presents new challenges and opportunities.

Since 1987, people moving into Pacific County have outnumbered those moving out, fueling an overall growth in the county's population. (Figure 5.2) Retirees make up a large number of recent arrivals.

The age structure of Pacific County's population (Figure 6.2) clearly shows the "graying" of Willapa's population today. More than one in five Willapa residents is older than 65 years, in 1940, the figure was fewer than one in ten.

Willapa Indicators for a Sustainable Community (WISC) is a first effort to gather and summarize information about the whole community of the Willapa Bay watershed: its natural residents (including people), its social setting, and its economic life. The report uses a preliminary set of indicators, or summarized statistics, as facets through which we can look into the community to gauge its well-being. A joint effort by the Willapa Alliance and Ecotrust, this report is not intended to provide, nor does it pretend to offer, a definitive picture of Willapa's communities. It is published as an invitation to discussion by residents about how to take stock, to choose common goals, and to measure progress toward reaching them.

Other communities in Washington state have pioneered this work. The Seattle Metrocenter YMCA launched Sustainable Seattle, a citizens' effort to develop indicators of sustainable community. Now in its fourth year, Sustainable Seattle has attracted worldwide attention. The City of Olympia created the Sustainable Community Roundtable in 1991 to promote public discussion of the attributes of an ideal community in the South Sound area. The Roundtable's objectives include an effort to identify characteristics of a sustainable community and to propose indicators to track progress.

WISC is one of the first attempts to carry out this sort of self-appraisal in a rural area. Residents of small towns and rural lands often have a more immediate, intuitive sense of the state of their community than do city dwellers--from daily conversations, community events, and what they see while driving around their home. But tangible information to reinforce true impressions, or in some cases to correct false ones, is hard to access. Accordingly, one goal of this report is to set the stage for creating a set of indicators that offers a common basis for community decision-making.

As its title says, this report considers indicators of "sustainable" community. "Sustainable development" is a label applied to efforts around the world to reconcile economic and environmental concerns. According to one common definition, "sustainable development meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs." For rural communities, sustainability poses a question: Can we go on living in this place the way we choose to? Indicators like the ones in this report can help clarify that choice and place control where it belongs, at the local level.

Many scientists who study the natural environment use "health"as an integrating concept. With themes of productivity, resilience, and diversity--the dimensions of health--scientists can relate the results of specialized studies to a bigger picture. This report includes environmental, economic, and community indicators that reflect these dimensions of health. Each suggests tangible ways that the health of the environment is tied to the vitality of the local economy and to community well-being.

A healthy environment produces a surplus of food or fiber that can be harvested sustainably, recovers readily from natural and human-made pressures, and supports all of the species and natural processes native to the region.

A healthy economy maintains its capital base (factories and businesses), its built infrastructure (roads, docks, etc.), and its natural infrastructure (the environment). It resists "boom and bust" cycles, promotes equity, and encourages local innovation and new business development.

A healthy community invites participation in public life, supports its members through times of change, enables lifelong learning, and welcomes a diversity of members and visitors.

The indicators presented here make up a tiny subset of the kinds of data available from public and private agencies. Aside from our concern with productivity, resilience, and diversity, we have made an effort to choose indicators that are readily available from public sources, easy for the general public to interpret, and as up-to-date as possible.

A premise of this report is that information about the environment reveals a great deal about the local economy. We assume as well that economic trends cast waters. Ultimately, such information helps us understand one story: the health of a place.

The ability to cope with change, without sacrificing either ecological or cultural integrity, is the hallmark of health. Indicators like the ones presented in this report can help Willapa's citizens recognize what's changing, what's stable, and what needs attention--to keep their home healthy.

Human communities depend on and are a part of their environment. How do we choose a few indicators that reflect the condition of that environment? The environmental component of ecosystem health is perhaps more complex than the economic or cultural components, yet far fewer data are available (we monitor ourselves much more closely than we do our environment). With this limitation in mind, we have sought indicators that inform us about the status of Willapa's environment in three broad categories: water resource quality, land use/vegetation patterns, and species populations. These indicators are of limited use, however, unless we have a baseline against which to gauge them. Our gathering of environmental information has included an effort to document historical trends. We must be careful to use historical data not as goals, but rather as guideposts to inform us about where we have been and where we might be going in our stewardship of the region.

The condition of water-borne resources such as oysters, salmon, crab, etc., is often the best indicator of ecosystem function within a watershed. The chemical and biological health of streams, rivers and estuaries are highly sensitive to urban development, forestry, and farming and mining practices, and should be monitored closely for signs of disturbance and degradation. Many natural-resource harvests within coastal rain forest watersheds--salmon, trout, shellfish and cranberries--depend on a continued supply of clean water. While water quality monitoring is conducted by a variety of agencies in the United States and Canada, there is no simple way to assess water resource quality locally or regionally. A more thorough monitoring of water resource quality should be a priority for communities in Willapa.

Streams, rivers, and estuaries along the Northwest coast are as distinct from one another as the geology and biota (animals, insects, and plants) in the rain forest watersheds they drain. Water chemistry is not sufficient to characterize their health. For example, some residents in the Willapa watershed are concerned about the effects of intensive agricultural and forestry practices on water quality, yet oyster harvests appear to be holding steady. Salmon have undergone changes in genetic make-up and species distribution, but harvests have also been fairly steady during the past 50 years. In contrast, the Clayoquot watershed on western Vancouver Island shows little evidence of agricultural or forestry impact; the water there is as clean as anywhere in the world. But sockeye salmon in the Kennedy Lakes in the Clayoquot basin have declined by ninety percent from their historic levels. Introduced species, over-harvesting, and natural predators--not degradation of water quality--may be diminishing this resource. The Willapa and Clayoquot watersheds face challenges, but neither water chemistry nor fish populations alone gauge their health accurately.

In the absence of a full water resource quality monitoring program, the condition of oysters in Willapa Bay (Fig 1.1) provides a good preliminary indicator of the bay's ecological health: oysters are highly sensitive to water quality and nutrient availability. Because weather patterns, ocean conditions, land-use practices, and water chemistry influence the condition of water resources and hence oysters, a change in the Oyster Condition Index indicates only that one or more of these factors is changing. Identification of the exact forces requires further study. A slow but steady decline in the oyster condition index at three monitoring locations reflects a trend occurring throughout the bay, and sounds a warning that water resource quality in the bay deserves closer scrutiny.

Water supplies are commonly monitored for fecal coliform, a toxic bacterium found in human and animal waste. Water samples from numerous sources are analyzed to see if the water is a health risk, could potentially be a health risk, or is suitable for drinking or aquacultural uses. In Washington state water is considered safe to drink only if there are no colonies of fecal coliform per 100 milliliters, but shellfish growing areas may be restricted only when the counts are higher than 14, or 10 percent of the samples exceed 43 colonies per 100 milliliters. High levels of fecal coliform can mean human waste is seeping into the water because of failing septic systems, or that there is a lot of wildlife activity in the area. Willapa Bay seems to have stayed relatively clean, with the exception of a few areas at certain times. (Fig.1.2)


Figure 1.1 The Oyster Condition Index (OCI) provides a measure an oyster's "fatness" in its shell. OCI values at Stony Point have shown a slow but steady decline. The Stockpole index values have generally declined from a peak in the mid-1970's. Oysterville has also experienced a gradual decline. The three areas have been averaged to give the treadline shown above.
Source: Washingtion Department fo fish and wildlife.


Note: The actual value for the 1991 North River sample was 309 colonies per 100 milliliters. The number has been reduced so that all samples could be displayed on a single scale.
Figure 1.2 Fecal coliform counts indicate the presence of human and animal waste in streams and rivers. Coliform counts in Willapa have held fairly steady since 1988. Though high counts have been reported near Bay Center and at the mouth of the Bear River, coliform counts in both areas were very low in 1993.

Changes in land use patterns through time indicate the path that humans have taken and are likely to take in changing the Willapa watershed. Land use patterns result from and modifies vegetation topography (land forms), soils, and climate. Of these four fundamental landscape characteristics, vegetation cover is the most easily altered by humans. Natural vegetation is an excellent indicator of environmental health; altered vegetation often reflects changes in the potential productivity of a landscape. With the help of satellite and aerial photography placed into a Geographic Information System (GIS), computerized maps can illustrate the different land uses of Pacific County. These maps can help us monitor short - and long-term changes in the vegetation cover, and can help us make planning decisions to reduce degradation.

Gathering these data (and updating information on vegetation cover at five year intervals) should be a high priority for any ecosystem monitoring program. However, the challenge in assessing vegetation cover lies not so much in acquiring the data, as in determining the purposes for which it should be analyzed and displayed. With historical and modern remotely-sensed vegetation data, Willapa residents can understand how these landscape-level patterns have changed through time, and anticipate likely future conditions.

Current data on land use in the Willapa watershed (Fig 2.1) show that 88 percent of the 600,000 acres of upland is forested of that forest land, 68 percent is owned and managed by timber corporations (another 12 percent is state-owned timberland). About 0.5 percent of the original late-successional forest (more than 100 years old) remains. Another 6 percent of the watershed is farmland, mostly dairy and beef farms, with a small percentage devoted to cranberry production along the coast. Residential and commercial property account for 11 percent of the watershed. Similar proportions have prevailed in Pacific County (fig. 2.1) during the last 40 years, with the exception of forest age class, which has shifted from predominately late successional to forest stands less than 60 years in age. Over half of Willapa Bay's 79,000 acres of tidelands are potentially suitable for oyster farming. The spread of exotic cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora), currently estimated at 4,000 acres in extent, poses a threat to oyster beds and will continue to be carefully monitored. Land Use Patterns in Pacific County, 1950-91


Figure 2.1 Land use patterns have changed little in Pacific County over the last 40 years. Overall patterns, however, fail to reveal significant changes in forests (a shift from older to younger age classes) and on farms (fewer farms, less intensively managed).
Source: Tice and Forrest (1990); Washington Conservation Needs Committee (1962);Pacific County Regional Planning Council (1971).

The distribution and abundance of plant and animal species are often accurate indicators of environmental conditions. But of the thousands of species residing in Willapa, which ones should we analyze? Good indicator species are easy to identify and count, relatively abundant, sensitive to their environment, and have relatively well-known environmental tolerances. Ideally, we should have a long-term history of their numbers. The two categories of animals that best fit this description in Willapa are salmon and trout (salmonids), and birds.

Salmon and trout are not only excellent indicators of stream and estuary conditions in Willapa; they are crucial to the economic and cultural health of this region. A simple count of salmonid returning to spawn (Fig. 3.1) provides an initial measure of this resource, but not a sufficient one. Rather, studying numbers and sizes of native and hatchery fish in relation to the amount that are fished reflects more accurately the status of salmon and trout in coastal streams.

In the absence of an all-encompassing salmonid study, it may be best to select one species to gauge stream, estuary, and near-shore conditions. Sea-run cutthroat trout is the logical choice for Willapa; it completes its life cycle within the estuary and its tributaries and is neither fished commercially nor propagated in hatcheries. Unfortunately, there is very little information about this species. For now a simple record of wild and hatchery salmon escapement (counts of fish returning to spawning areas at maturity) shows a striking trend that has gained the attention of some fishers in the Willapa region: the sustained decline in chum salmon and the corresponding rise in coho and chinook species (Fig. 3.2). This pattern may be due to the onset of chinook and coho fisheries enhancement programs. Hatchery programs have stabilized the catch of salmon in the Willapa region, but have also shifted the species distribution from native chum to non-native chinook and coho stocks, with little consideration of possible consequences to the ecosystem.

Birds, like trout and salmon, are sensitive to habitat alteration and impacts on food webs. Birds are also excellent environmental indicators because they are relatively easy to count. Furthermore, good long-term databases exist for most regions in North America in the form of Christmas bird counts conducted by local Audubon groups, and waterfowl surveys in wetland habitats by state and national wildlife agencies. Non-migratory species whose foraging and nesting habits are well known are likely to provide the most information on habitat condition. For example, dippers are excellent indicators of insect larvae populations in streams, and bald eagles are sensitive to fish abundance and natural riparian (streamside) vegetation structure.

The database with the longest record and broadest scope in Willapa is the waterfowl count conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for Willapa Bay. The counts appear highly variable; this is due to the migratory activity of non-resident waterfowl. Peak-use (i.e. migrant dominated) periods show a general decline, whereas low-use (i.e. "resident" dominated) periods have remained steady, suggesting that ecosystems along the Pacific Flyway including Willapa no longer support a stable migrant waterfowl community, but that Willapa Bay itself supports a stable year-round population.

As Willapa residents begin to build a long-term biological database, we will be able to compare not just the present and past status of individual species, but whole interconnected groups of species--the diversity of the plants and animals in the region. Candidates for closer observation include species that pose a threat to commercial activities, such as mud shrimp and spartina, as well as species that indicate ecological vitality, like bald eagles and dippers.


Figure 3.1 Total numbers of spawning salmon have increased since 1969. The terminal run trendline does not include wild (non-hatchery) escapement for coho salmon.
Source: Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.


Figure 3.2 Commercial landings of salmon reflect the abundance and desirability of the three major species of salmon that return to Willapa tributaries to spawn. Landings of chinook and coho salmon, propagated by the three state hatcheries in the watershed, have increased since 1935. Landings of chum salmon, which depend on wild production, have declined.
Source: Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.

Useful indicators of economic health should reflect significant environmental effects and trends in residents' quality of life, not just the raw size of the economy. Traditional socio-economic measurements such as employment and income, through important, do not predict the stability of jobs and salaries. High employment rates and high average incomes in timber-dependent communities in the late 1970s did not provide early warning signs of the economic distress ahead. Efforts to monitor economic trends must include predictive indicators as well as measures of past and present conditions.

Natural-resource-based communities, by definition, are highly dependent on the productivity of the surrounding environment. Important economic sectors which form the base industries of natural-resource-based communities, such as forestry, fisheries, agriculture and tourism, depend on a continued flow of products and services from an intact and functioning ecosystem. Critical to evaluating economic vitality, then, is an indicator of the quantity and quality of key natural-resources. Resource production often requires inputs including fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides. In evaluating whether resource production is increasing or declining, it is helpful to assess the level of inputs needed to produce a given harvest, as well as assessing the indirect beneficial and adverse effects of the inputs and the cultivation and harvesting of the resource.

Many resource economists focus on the economic value of the harvests of natural-resources (Fig. 4.1); equally or more important is the physical stock of resources. If the stock of resources is known, one can assess whether regeneration is keeping pace with harvest, and whether the stock of "natural capital" is shrinking or growing. For example, recent studies of Pacific Northwest salmon stocks have shown a dramatic decrease in the size of the fish, and therefore in strength and quality, in many runs. In general, historical and current information on stocks of resources is hard to come by, but a program that began to collect these data could be very helpful in the future. Some data do exist on production per acre of harvested timber and cranberries (Appendix, Fig. 4.2); these data show how much harvests per acre have fluctuated over the years.

Seventy years of local timber harvest data reveal that late-successional (old growth) stands have been replaced by younger age classes and that timber is being harvested in the county at a sustainable level while cranberry harvests have continued to rise, oyster harvests have fallen slightly, and cattle numbers have remained steady.


Figure 4.1 Timber and tourism contribute more total value to Willapa's economy than do other key natural-resources. The decline in timber production in the early 1980s was caused by recession and a nationwide decline in housing starts. Tourism data are available for only two years, making long-term trends difficult to assess.
Sources: Washington Department of Agriculture. Washington Department of Natural-resources. Washington Department of Revenue. Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Washington 1991-93: Economic Impacts of Travel and Visitor Volume, Dean Runyan Associates.


Figure 4.2 Timber harvests increased in a highly variable manner from 1925 until the early 1970s. Since then, changes in regional, national, and international markets, and the disappearance of late-successional (old-growth) forest stands have contributed to a general decline in harvests, with a particularly marked trough during the mid-1980s recession. Salmon and oyster harvests are lower today than in the past, cattle production has remained nearly level, and cranberry production has increased steadily.
Source: Washington Department of Natural-resources. Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. Washington Department of Agriculture.

Local communities have a vested interest in the health of the ecosystem in which they reside, not only for their own economic and social well-being, but for that of their children and grandchildren. Economic opportunity, which plays a great part in whether or not people can stay in the region, can be manifested in many ways.

Unemployment rates are familiar and useful indicators of local economic conditions (Fig. 5.1). Unemployment in Pacific County is currently around 12 percent, down from the high of 17 percent in 1981, but still substantial. In addition, the gap between local unemployment rates and unemployment rates for the state as a whole is widening; Washington State unemployment is level at 7.8 percent. Current unemployment is higher in Pacific County than in thirty-three of Washington's thirty-nine counties. However, both unemployment rates and labor participation rates should be interpreted with caution in natural-resource-based communities. Traditional employment and personal income data statistics do not include the self-employed, certain groups of agricultural workers, or the value of food produced in home gardens, fishing and hunting; nor do they assign values to unpaid domestic labor, such as child care and meal preparation. The failure to include these "hidden" economic transactions results in an understatement of the richness, diversity and resilience of natural-resource-based economies.

In-migration and out-migration can also illuminate economic opportunity (Fig 5.2). The primary sources of migration into Pacific County are the Seattle area, the Portland area and neighboring counties. In-migration from California is negligible (figure , Appendix). The level and sources of in-migration are critical determinants of the character of a place. One study of forest-dependent counties in northern California found that the level of in-migration was an important predictor of rural wealth (the other significant predictor was the extent of corporate or government ownership of forest land). In-migration contributed to rural wealth, with in-migrants bringing in new capital and new ideas. The place of origin of in-migrants can influence the demographics and values of new residents, and contribute to community change. Most out-migration from Pacific County is to neighboring Grays Harbor county and to the Seattle area. Out-migration can indicate a lack of opportunity in the county as well as increases in jobs in surrounding metropolitan areas.

The number of businesses has increased steadily in Pacific County since 1987 (See Appendix, Figures A5 and A6). This trend is encouraging and may indicate increased access to capital and markets as well as increased entrepreneurial activity. The timber industry has for years been consolidating operations in fewer, larger, more efficient mills that commonly draw raw logs from 100-200 miles away. This trend has led to fewer mill jobs in Pacific County, which lacks some of the attributes (e.g. a deep water port) that nearby processing centers possess. While residents of Pacific County can and do commute to these processing centers, more local value-added processing may benefit both workers and the industry as a whole by channeling products from commodity markets to "niche" markets, which are more protected from recessionary pressures. Most timber cut in Pacific County has historically been milled elsewhere; local timber processing declined especially from 1970 to 1982 and has remained steady though low since then.

New construction has accelerated recently due to the considerable population growth in Pacific County. Mobile homes are the preferred new housing for both long-term residents and in-migrants, especially on inexpensive interior (non-waterfront) land: the number of permits awarded in 1993, 160, was nearly double the eighty-two awarded in 1983. In comparison, 108 permits for the construction of single family homes were awarded in 1993, down slightly from 105 in 1992. Mobile homes and their relation to wood-frame homes indicate the availability of low and middle income housing options. A 1991-92 study found that there is a lack of affordable housing alternatives for Pacific County residents. Mobile homes provide an affordable alternative, but may make for a less invested, less permanent community.


Figure 5.1 Unemployment rates in Pacific County, calculated by dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total of all employed and unemployed workers, have historically been higher than the Washington state average. In the past fifteen years, the county's rate has climbed to more than 4 percent above the state rate; it is nearly double Oregon's rate.
Sources: Washington State Employment Security.


Figure 5.2 The early 1980s marked the end of the timber boom and the beginning of the national recession. In-migration exceeded out-migration considerably and then fell to the point where more people were leaving the county than arriving. By 1987 in-migration picked up again and has continued to grow with the large amount of retirees moving to the coast from other Washington counties and the western United States.
Source: Washington Department of Revenue.

Lack of diversity in a community's industrial base sets the stage for a cycle of economic booms and busts. If the industry concentration is in natural-resource-based industries, the cycle can be even more severe, compounded by the seasonal nature of the businesses. Boom and bust cycles are very destructive to the fabric of a community. Thus the degree of diversity in a community's economic structure is a significant indicator of long-term ecosystem health. Evaluating economic structure can involve an analysis of base versus secondary industries, an analysis of the number of companies and employees in each industry sector, a detailed analysis of key industries, or all of the above.

Government and education are the largest employers in Pacific county since the manufacturing industry, specifically wood products manufacturing, declined in 1985 (fig. 6.1). As mentioned before, the service industry has expanded to meet the growing demand as has the retail and wholesale trade sector. If the employment in the county increases by the creation of varied small businesses, the diversity will increase and the sustainability and long term security of the economy could strengthen.

Diversity can also be evaluated from the perspective of the age structure of Willapa residents (fig. 6.2). Significant changes are occurring in the age distribution in natural-resource-based communities. These changes reflect not simply the economic transformation of many of these communities, but also potential changes in a community's needs for public services.

The number of people in the 25 to 44 year old age group is an indicator of economic opportunity. Declining numbers in this age group reflect declining employment opportunities because of their vulnerability to economic downturns (less seniority than those 45 and older). As this age group is more responsive to both upturns and downturns in local economic conditions, changes should be monitored to provide early indications of shifts in economic opportunities. Out-migration of young adults (the 18 to 25 year old age group) is a tremendous concern for natural-resource-based communities and should also be monitored.

Growth of the 65 year and older age group, typically retirees, has far-reaching implications. Relative growth in the over-65 group can be a function of the out-migration of younger age groups due to declining economic opportunities, or an increased in-migration of retirees, or a combination of both factors. Absolute increases in retirees can lead to sectoral changes, as service industries expand to meet their health care and other service needs. In many cases, this can provide a much needed influx of income and employment, although the service sector jobs may be lower paying than the jobs they replace and may not be consistent with residents' traditional work skills and experience.

Evidence that retirees are less supportive of public services than non-retirees provides another significant reason for carefully tracking the relative growth of the over-65 population. In a survey conducted in six natural-resource-dependent communities, retired respondents expressed less support for public services and were twice as likely as working respondents to mention taxes as the most important issue facing the community. Understanding changes in the over-65 population can help a community to craft tax levies and public services which meet the needs and concerns of this age group, and help guide job training development in expanding sectors.


Figure 6.1 Changes in employment by sector in Pacific County show the declining importance of manufacturing and a corresponding increase in government, wholesale and retail trade, and services. These changes are linked to the growing importance of tourism and retirement to Willapa's economy. Note: Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries is the actual cultivation of crops and livestock, agriculture services, logging, fishing, and hunting and trapping.
Sources: Washington State Employment Security.


Figure 6.2 Changes in the age structure of Pacific County's population over the past 50 years clearly show the baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s, the aging of the baby boom generation, and the substantial growth in the retirement population.
Source: General Social and Economic Characteristics of the Population, United States Bureau of the Census

A healthy community engages all its citizens and provides economic opportunity for each citizen to meet basic needs, such as food, shelter, education, and recreation. There are many measures of a community's commitment to meeting the needs of its citizens, including the number of people living below the poverty line, the extent of affordable housing, and the distribution of wealth and income.

In general, the income and opportunity gap between rural and urban communities is growing, and Pacific County is no exception. As high-paying manufacturing jobs decline and are replaced by lower-paying service sector jobs, the potential for a decline in average real income and increasing disparities in income increases (fig. 7.1). Within the county, the income distribution curve has flattened out, with proportionally fewer people in the middle-income brackets and proportionally more in both high and low income brackets (fig. 7.2). Income distribution is an important indicator of education and employment opportunities. In addition, in many communities greater income disparities are associated with higher levels of social tension, crime, and shortages of skilled labor.

Poverty is an important indicator in any community. In Pacific County the share of people living under the poverty line declined from 1970 (14.6 percent) to 1980 (10.9 percent), but rose again by 1990 (17.2 percent), and has always been higher than the state average (which has stayed around 10.3 percent), children account for a significant proportion of people living in poverty in Pacific County. Data from the 1990 census showed that 45 percent of the 3,166 Pacific County residents living in poverty were under 24 years old (1,422 children and young adults), and 35 percent were under 17 years old (1,108 children). In Pacific County, 37.6 percent of all 5 year olds are poor, the highest percentage of any age group; the state average for 5 year olds was 16.4 percent. The following table shows national poverty guidelines for 1993.
Family size
 Poverty guideline
1 $6,970
2 $9,430
3 $11,890
4 $14,350
5 $16,810
6 $19,270
7 $21,730
8 $24,190
More than 8 $2,460 for each additional person


Figure 7.1 Though Pacific County residents have always had average incomes below state averages, the difference is clearly increasing. The gap appears to be a function of the increase in economic opportunities in Seattle, which is driving the increase in the state's average, and the replacement of high-paying manufacturing jobs by relatively lower-paying service sector jobs in Pacific County.
Source: Washington State Bureau of Economic Analysis


Figure 7.2 The distribution of income in Pacific County is becoming flatter, meaning that the proportions of both low- and high-income earners are larger than in the past. Washington state shows the same trend. In addition, the state as a whole has proportionally more residents earning high incomes than Willapa residents, and proportionally fewer low-income residents.
Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census

Community health may be the most challenging component of ecosystem health to gauge. Information relevant to rural communities is notoriously difficult to obtain because of the cost and effort of collecting reliable data in sparsely populated regions, and the top-down approach traditionally used to gather socio-economic information. Over time, assessing community health will involve social assessments and other primary research. In this section we focus on four categories of community health: the extent of lifelong learning, the physical health of residents, citizenship, and stewardship.

High-wage manufacturing jobs (which once required relatively low skills) have shifted abroad to lower-wage countries, while the proportion of jobs requiring advanced skills has increased. A high school diploma is a first critical step towards participating in these skilled jobs and towards continued educational and vocational growth. (fig. 8.1).

Some studies of the career paths of local graduates have been done, and researchers are continuing to contact high school graduates to find out where they are, if they have a job, how much money they earn, and where they are headed. The Tri-District Vocational Office, representing the Willapa Valley, South Bend, and Raymond school districts, has asked local businesses what sorts of skills they need and how much opportunity they offer. Such studies can be done in order to assess and improve the local educational system.

Although Pacific County does not have a college campus within its borders, residents have access to community colleges in Aberdeen, Centralia, Chehalis, and Astoria, Oregon. Grays Harbor Community College in Aberdeen has extension offices in Raymond and Ilwaco offering numerous classes each year. The most popular classes are Beginning Math, Basic Algebra, Physical Education, Sociology, Anthropology, and Introduction to Micro-Computers. Business, History, and English classes are in low demand by Pacific County residents, and Spanish classes, though requested, have not attracted the required enrollment. Enrollment is generally high in the more popular classes, and residents appreciate the college's open-door policies. Acquisition of advanced degrees as well as adult education are good indicators of self-motivation, increased independence, adaptability to changing skill needs and a general interest in learning and growth.


Figure 8.1 High School graduation rates have declined throughout the state since the early 1980s. Pacific County graduation rates, briefly higher than the state levels, have recently dipped below the state average to about 70 percent. The relatively small number of county graduates may make this gap insignificant, though the apparent decline within Pacific County since 1984-85 is worth noting.
Source: Washington State Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Physical and mental health are vital elements of community health, and therefore of ecosystem health. Access and quality of health care are complex problems for isolated rural communities that have relatively few doctors and clinics. Pacific County is no exception. In a recent study done by the Partnership for Better Health in Pacific County, 90 percent of residents surveyed felt that access to health care was a serious concern.

A baby's weight at birth is an important indicator of maternal and infant health, and can be an important determinant of long-term physical health and intellectual development (Fig. 9.1). In addition, birthweight is associated with the level of prenatal care and thus may reflect the availability of health care in the community. The percentage of healthy birthweight babies may also reflect the quality of the health care available because low birthweight is a key determinant of infant mortality, (Fig. 9.2) and surviving babies bear an increased risk of birth defects, mental retardation and physical ailments. Also, the distribution of healthy birthweight babies among various socio-economic and ethnic groups reflects the degree to which health care resources are equitably distributed.

Prenatal care in the first three months of pregnancy is an important step toward delivering a healthy birthweight baby. Prenatal care centers encourage mothers to develop healthy eating habits and to learn about the needs of their child. Although prenatal care is not the only variable in delivering healthy babies, it has been generally accepted as a primary indicator of healthcare by professionals. In 1991, the Pacific County Health Department began the First Steps program offering prenatal support, education, and case-management services to low-income women. In 1993, First Steps served 550 families. The program offers education, counseling, nutrition information, food vouchers and emotional support. Pacific County mothers now receive early prenatal care at rates equal to the statewide average.

Babies delivered in the mother's county of residence indicate access to hospitals and health care centers, trust in the local medical community, and both mother and child a sense of place. Historically, more than 50 percent of Pacific County babies were born out-of-county, many in nearby Astoria, Oregon. This trend may be changing as more obstetric doctors are available to Pacific County mothers and more Pacific County families take advantage of the Well Child Clinic which offers immunizations, general health care, and check-ups for infants and children.

Admissions at Pacific County hospitals have declined steadily from 1985 to the present. The decline may jeopardize the economic stability of local hospitals and may diminish the ability to perform certain procedures successfully if the number of these procedures is reduced. Admissions to local hospitals indicates economic viability and may also indicate success in delivering their services. A decline in admissions could stem from a number of causes such as residents' lack of trust in their medical facilities, the hospital's inability to provide the services needed by the community, or improved health status of the population. However, without more detailed data about hospital admissions, residents' or insurance carriers' policies, conclusions cannot be drawn.

Incidence of substance abuse, crime, and the number and quality of mental health professionals reflect the mental and "civic" health of residents. At present, long-term, consistent centralized data from local police stations, the courthouse, and crisis centers are not available. However, in many instances these institutions are compiling data in computerized systems which should facilitate research and analysis in the future. Recent studies of Pacific County health, access to healthcare, and youths at risk have begun to document physical and mental health in the county. An examination of the mental health facilities, surveys of mental health professionals, investigations into drug and alcohol treatment and use, and studies of crime, among others could be helpful indicators of community mental health.


Figure 9.1 Birthweights above 5 pounds 8 ounces are considered "healthy." Due to the small number of babies born to Pacific County residents, year-to-year changes appear exaggerated when compared with the much larger state-wide sample. The incidence of healthy birthweights in Pacific County is comparable to the statewide average.
Source: Washington State Department of Health.


Figure 9.2 Many Pacific County physicians take pride in the low infant mortality rate recorded here. The steady decline in prenatal and infant mortality rates in the county and the state as a whole reflects improved access to prenatal care for all income levels, better medical facilities, and more educated mothers.
Source: Vital Statistics of the United States, United States Public Health Services.

Commitment and empowerment are critical elements of ecosystem health: without an engaged and committed community, appropriate and enduring decisions will not be made. Effective participation requires mechanisms for community involvement, and the sense among community members that their input will be considered. Indicators of community involvement include voter turnout for elections, participation in city council and other community meetings, and the extent of local volunteerism.

Voter turnout reflects both the commitment and sense of responsibility people feel regarding the community decision making system, and the extent to which they believe that they can make a difference (Fig. 10.1). Increasing voter participation reflects increased understanding and involvement in important community decisions and the belief that the system is fair and responsive. Declining turnout can reflect alienation because of a lack of acceptable choices, apathy and cynicism, or the perception that the decision making system is flawed or unresponsive. The degree of voter involvement also reflects poverty levels, educational attainment levels and the general state of the community's social health.

The diversity of community organizations reflect the residents' level of concern and breadth of interest. Pacific County has over 250 different organizations, which suggests a high degree of involvement in a broad range of social, economic, and environmental activities. Considering Pacific County's small population, this spirit of working together and of pursuing special causes is a positive indicator of overall well-being. Churches and religious groups are twice as numerous as any other type of community organization, showing that involvement in spiritual activities is popular. The second most popular organizations fall into the Hobby category, while 16 groups are devoted to crisis intervention and support, physical and mental health, and other services. In the future, it might be worthwhile to compile data that reflect the number of participants in each of these organizational categories as well as to conduct a more in-depth public opinion survey to reveal the depth of involvement in organizations among Pacific County residents. For more context, comparisons with nearby counties of similar size could prove helpful.

Other less positive indicators of citizenship are those associated with crime. As mentioned in the Health section, few historical data on crime in Pacific County are available, but current trends are receiving closer scrutiny. People commit crimes for many reasons, but crime increases when people have few economic opportunities, are unable to support themselves due to financial burdens and poor education, and when increased population creates competition for scarce resources. The connection between crime and mental health is indicated by suicide rates and other violent crime. Pacific County's rates of violent crime and suicide, though higher than state averages, have wide margins of error due to a small sample size.


Figure 10.1 The turnout of Pacific County voters is generally high. Since 1980, the county turnout has surpassed the state turnout in both presidential and non-presidential elections, suggesting a proactive, involved community.
Source: Washington Secretary of State, Pacific County Auditor.

Citizens in many communities have become increasingly aware of their impacts on the surrounding environment. Some strive to produce no more waste than natural systems can process and to consume resources no faster than they can be renewed. Data on solid waste management (recycling vs. landfill disposal), human waste management (reports of leaking septic systems) and household energy conservation provide insights into important dimensions of stewardship.

The recycling rate is an indicator of the ease or convenience of recycling and how much people know about how, why, and where to recycle (fig. 11.1). For example, the Lion's Club has set up a newspaper drop box, local volunteer groups contribute to the effort, and Pacific County has received some state money in the past to educate residents about the benefits of recycling. Long-term benefits include a reduction in the cost of disposal that comes with a reduced waste stream, an increase in revenues from the sales of recycled materials, less solid waste going to landfills that in turn reduces the risk of pollution, and increased community involvement in conservation. Although no landfills have operated in Pacific County since the early 1990s, ecosystem stewardship reaches beyond county borders. With the increase in population and in-migration, recycling will become more and more important. In a poll conducted at the 1992 County Fair, 94 percent of the 112 adults surveyed about waste management supported ongoing and increased recycling services, and 36 percent expressed a need for more convenient services such as curbside collection.

The electricity consumed in Pacific County (Fig 11.2) is generated at the Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River. In the past, in cooperation with Bonneville Power and others, the Pacific County Public Utility District (PUD) implemented a number of energy conservation projects. For several years beginning in the late 1980s a weatherization assistance program that paid 30 percent of the cost of home insulation was offered to residents on a first-come-first-serve basis. Pacific County continually exceeded the program's target participation level. The PUD has also distributed water-saving shower and faucet heads that reduce hot water use and therefore reduce electricity consumption.

The health of a community's septic and sewer systems is an important indicator of waste management and pollution risks to ground water. Data on Pacific County septic systems are very limited. Due to faulty soil and water analysis, many septic systems in the county were built too small. The county is attempting to document the immediate and long-term danger from septic system failure and leakage. Like recycling, and energy conservation , human waste management will become more and more important as the county population grows.


Figure 11.1 Both the total amount of solid waste generated in Pacific County, and the share of waste that is recycled declined from 1989-92. In 1992, approximately 1,151 lbs. of solid waste were generated per person in Pacific County, of which only 157 lbs. were recycled. Despite improvement in local recycling efforts, more than 85 percent of the county's waste stream must be disposed of in landfills.


Figure 11.2 Residential customers use 80 percent of the electricity consumed in Pacific County, while commercial and industrial customers use 20 percent. Consumption has risen faster for residential than for commercial or industrial customers. Although not shown in the figure, electricity consumption in the county reached a new peak in 1994.
Source: Public Utility District Number 2 of Pacific County.

How does the Willapa Alliance address these issues? While we cannot and should not tackle every concern that this report raises, several of our on-going and future programs offer positive steps toward a sustainable future for the Willapa watershed.

Willapa Indicators for a Sustainable Community will influence the Willapa Alliance's strategic and annual plans and projects. Many organizations in Pacific County are working successfully to address the issues raised in this report, and we encourage others to use this valuable information while forming their annual plans. We also encourage individuals to get involved with local organizations (see companion volume) in order to become a part of the pro active efforts to promote long-term community health and sustainability.

The Directory of Organizations and Services in Pacific County, Including Key Government Officials, is a companion volume to this Willapa Indicators report, is intended to,

Copies of Willapa Indicators and the Directory can be obtained at the Willapa Alliance office in South Bend or at the ShoreTrust Trading Group office at the Port of Ilwaco. You may also call The Alliance at (360) 875-5195 or ShoreTrust at (360) 642-4265 for information about other locations where these documents are available.

Ecotrust is a non profit organization based in Portland, Oregon which supports community sustainability initiatives in the coastal temperate rain forest region of North America. Our goal is to create practical examples of conservation-based development in the "rain forest of home."

Contact
Phone Number
Pacific County
Administrator (360) 875-9334
Assessors Office, Jerry Porter (360) 875-9301
Auditors Office (360) 875-9309
Chamber of Commerce
Raymond, WA (360) 942-5419
Seaview, WA (360) 642-2400
Clerk's Office, Gail Hatfield (360) 875-9320
Department of Community Development
Bryan Harrison and Scott Berbells (360) 875-9356
Department of Health, Kathy Spoor (360) 875-9343
Doctor, Dr. David Lush (360) 875-5524
Economic Development Council
Jim Lowry at Port of Ilwaco (360) 642-3143
Jim Sayce (360) 942-5564
Marine Resources Agent, Steve Harbell (360) 875-9331
Oyster Producer Contact, Lee Wiegardt (360) 665-4111
Public Utility District #2, Doug Miller (360) 942-2411
Soil Conservation, Tom Hedt (360) 875-9424
South Bend Police Department (360) 875-5444
Spartina Contact, Tim Wilson (360) 875-9425
Tri-Districts Vocational Office, Bob Batee (360) 942-2668
Washington State
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Forcast Div. (360) 753-2064
Cranberry Contact, Kim Patten (360) 642-2031
Data Book, Diana Brunick (360) 753-1853
Department of Agriculture, Ag Statistics (360) 902-1940
Department of Ecology
Recycling, Judy Friese (360) 407-6133
Department of Fish and Wildlife
Lee Hoines (360) 902-2310
Carol Turcotte (360) 902-2253
Laurie Adkins (Species Data Dissemination) (360) 902-2543
Department of Health (360) 586-6779
Center for Health Stats, Craig Parker (360) 586-6008
Vital Statistics, Pat Starzyk (360) 586-6028
Department of Natural Resources (360) 902-1000
Timber Compiler, David Larson (360) 902-1699
Department of Revenue
Business Statistics, Peter Lin (360) 753-2040
Forest Taxes, Steve Vermillion (360) 664-8432
Tax Statistics, Steve Smith (360) 586-5661
Department of Tourism (800) 544-1800
Department of Trade , Community and Economic Development (360) 753-5631
Education Assessment (360) 753-3449
Employment Security, Ivars Graudins (360) 438-4825
Energy Office (360) 956-2000
Health Foundation, Ken White (360) 281-7211
Higher Education Coordinating Board (360) 753-2210
Office of Financial Management (360) 753-5459
Oyster Science Contact, WSU, Brett Dumbauld (360) 665-4166
Secretary of State, Elections Division (360) 753-2336
Small Business Administration (360) 220-6530
Superintendent of Public Instruction, Ed Strozyk (360) 753-1700
United States
Bureau of Labor Statistics (202) 606-7777
Bureau of the Census (301) 763-7662
Population Statistics (301) 763-5002
Poverty Statistics (301) 763-8578
Washington State Data Center (360) 586-2504
Department of Commerce
Bureau of Economic Analysis (202) 606-9900
Regional Economic Info Systems, Steve Dolan (202) 606-5360
Department of Interior
Willapa National Wildlife Refuge and Satellites (360)484-3482
Department of Labor
Office of Economic Research (202) 205-6538
Department of Revenue, Income Stats, In/Out Migration (202) 874-0700
Department of Vital Statistics
Mortality (301) 436-8884
Natality (301) 436-8954
Environmental Protection Agency
Toxics Office (202) 260-3757
Water Office (202) 260-2090
Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Experiment Station (503) 321-5866
Small Business Administration (206) 220-6500
Miscellaneous
Anonymous Choices, Drug and Alcohol Treatment Center (360) 642-8292
Chinook Observer Newspaper (360) 642-8181
Clatsop Community College, Astoria, OR (503) 325-0910
Crisis Pregnancy Center in Ilwaco (360) 642-8717
Crisis Support Network (360) 484-7191
Dean Runyan Associates (503) 226-2973
Grays Harbor Community College
Aberdeen, WA, Pat Hillion (360) 533-4025
Raymond, WA, Carol Sturicka (360) 942-2105
Ilwaco Community Church (360) 642-4844
Long Beach Police Department (360) 642-2911
Northwest Policy Center, Paul Summer and Hal Fossum (206) 543-7900
Oregon State University Library (503) 737-3331
Portland State University Library (503) 725-4617
Rural Health Expert at UW, Roger Rosenblatt (360) 685-0401
Shoalwater Bay Indian Tribe (360) 267-6766
University of Washington Library (360) 543-9158
Willapa Alliance, Dan'l Markham (360) 875-5195
Willapa Counseling in Long Beach (360) 642-3787
Willapa Harbor Herald Newspaper (360) 942-3466

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